What Does "The Future of Work" Look Like?

One of the big themes of last calendar week's Fortune Brainstorm Tech was the "future of work"—in other words, how work is changing due to the advent of the "gig economy," the impact of bogus intelligence and machine learning, and the need for a more inclusive, more diverse workforce, specially in the tech industry.

I attended a specially interesting breakfast where attendees discussed the future of employment. McKinsey Global Establish Partner Michael Chui talked most his firm'due south studies, which indicate that 50 per centum of work activities could exist automated with electric current technology, though he expects this will not occur until 2055. Chui noted automation would exist "slow in macro, fast in micro," meaning that while it volition take a long time for this to touch on the total economy, it volition touch on individuals much faster.

New America CEO Anne-Marie Slaughter and Bloomberg Beta head Roy Bahat described a study they ran that envisioned dissimilar scenarios for employment, depending on the amount of automation and the breakdown of tasks and jobs. Slaughter talked about how we will demand to redeploy many people into jobs that emphasize intendance, arts and crafts, customization, curation, or are part of the circular economy (such as fierce down strip malls due to the growth of due east-commerce). Bahat talked about the "significant of work" and its importance beyond simply income, and how there was a "data desert" regarding employment.

PSP Capital Chairman Penny Pritzker, who was U.s. Secretarial assistant of Commerce in the Obama assistants, talked nigh the need for the The states to develop a strategic competitive advantage in employment. Pritzker said there are 6 meg open up jobs and seven.viii million people looking for jobs, only that at that place is a "skills gap" that needs to be addressed. She and Bahat both are worried that the upcoming census would not assemble equally much data on employment every bit they think is necessary.

Hemant Taneja, Managing Director, General Goad, said that life today is "fundamentally different" from life in 2007, and that the differences are not fully understood, particularly in terms of how these differences have impacted employment. Meanwhile, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu is focused on the 55 one thousand thousand people who take part-time or "gig economy" jobs, and the difficulties these people confront because they lack predictable income or benefits such as health care.

I brought upward what I see as the disconnect between the discussion of automation replacing jobs and the depression growth in productivity, every bit well as the concern about jobs and unemployment statistics, and statistics that which indicate that people actually alter jobs less ofttimes now than they did a generation ago. Many people at the breakfast faulted the statistics, only Pritzker defended them, and said she hopes the next census will gather more than information. Pritzker said the statistics are right about the averages, but that people don't live in the averages, and have their own individual problems.

Exercise Yous Demand An AI Strategy?

Many of the same things came upward at a lunchtime session on AI strategy. This session was introduced by KPMG primary Cliff Justice, who said that AI will impact every business and create a profound shift over a generation, merely in general that information technology'south about "augmenting, not replacing" workers.

Kindred Chief Production Officer George Babu said every industry needs an AI strategy, and most of the panelists and the audience agreed. Later, he said the thought that companies need huge amounts of data for AI is "overblown," and added that many companies actually accept the information they need. View Drinking glass CEO Rao Mulpuri agreed, simply said data isn't plenty—you lot also need context. Simply Mulpuri did acknowledge that his opacity-irresolute drinking glass panels create millions of data points.

The discussion moved to the employment question, and Data Collective Co-Managing Partner Zachary Bogue said that 3 million bluish-collar truck driving jobs will disappear in the next few years. Babu agreed that jobs are changing, and that AI is changing the fundamental cost of physical work. Tableau board member Hilarie Koplow-McAdams said that this is already a problem, with some workers already existence displaced. She added that at the same time it's often hard to observe workers with the right skills.

Personally, I remain skeptical that things are changing equally fast every bit people think. For example, I believe that fifty-fifty if the technology needed for self-driving trucks was perfect today, it would take years for regulations and customs to catch up with the technology, and years to build or retrofit such self-driving trucks. I think trucking may be automated, simply believe it will likely have a decade or two.

Talking Robotics and Automation

The conference opened with a conversation on autonomous vehicles from Kyle Vogt, CEO of Cruise Automation, a startup that was acquired by GM final year, and Tim Kentley-Klay, CEO of Zoox, which is building its own vehicle. Both (pictured above) were very enthusiastic that we will see fleets of self-driving vehicles in urban areas in the relatively near future.

Vogt talked about working to get autonomous vehicles on the market place as quickly as possible, and noted that car accidents kill xxx,000 Americans a year. He said that this is why the company decided to partner with GM. Vogt said Cruise currently has 38 cars driving around San Francisco, Phoenix, and Detroit, with plans to add together 100 more cars in the next few weeks. He said the visitor is virtually to introduce "Prowl to Anywhere," a test program which will let its employees call an autonomous vehicle to go anywhere in San Francisco. Vogt said the starting point for autonomous vehicles will exist a ride-sharing business, equally the initial vehicles volition be more than expensive and thus aimed at the fleet market. But Vogt said he expects it will be "months non years" until beginning commercial deployment.

Nest Labs Master Technical Officer Yoky Matsuoka talked nearly the fears that many people have near robotics and artificial intelligence, and said that she mostly thinks robots are going in the right direction, and that many of the fears are overblown. But she believes the fear is good, by and large because we must go the policies right.

For the side by side ten to 20 years, Matsuoka said we should exist thinking about what things robots and car learning are adept at that people aren't, and set the boundaries accordingly. For instance, she noted that we're non expert at lifting things, or repetitive tasks, and that there are things nosotros know nosotros should do that we don't do—such as adjusting the thermostat or keeping track of fitness or nutrition. People say they want to save energy, she said, but and so neglect to modify the thermostat when they leave their homes. That's something the Nest thermostat does, and Matsuoka said that since 2022 homes using the visitor's thermostat take saved 13 billion kilowatt-hours of power. (She considers the thermostat to be a robot, as information technology uses sensors and other things considered to be function of robotics.)

Matsuoka noted that the Nest thermostat was originally more aggressive, but the visitor shortly learned that it had to be perceived every bit helping people save energy rather than doing information technology on its ain. (I personally had such a bad experience with an early Nest thermostat that I haven't tried one in years.)

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Michael J. Miller is chief information officer at Ziff Brothers Investments, a private investment firm. Miller, who was editor-in-principal of PC Magazine from 1991 to 2005, authors this web log for PCMag.com to share his thoughts on PC-related products. No investment advice is offered in this blog. All duties are disclaimed. Miller works separately for a private investment house which may at whatever time invest in companies whose products are discussed in this blog, and no disclosure of securities transactions will exist made.

Source: https://sea.pcmag.com/feature/16770/what-does-the-future-of-work-look-like

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